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September 12, 2008

NFL Scorecard - Week 2 Predictions

As I was watching Aaron Rodgers jump into the crowd Monday night in Lambeau, I thought back to the weekend of games... Tom Brady going down, Peyton Manning losing at home to the Bears, Shawne Merriman out for the year... It made me realize that this season is wide open to anybody who wants it. My mind continued to ponder the scenarios that may play out until I came to a frightening thought...

What if the Packers play the Jets in the Super Bowl?

Likely? Well, no. But it's safe to say that the Jets' path to the playoffs got a wee bit easier after Week 1, despite a shaky win against a bad Miami team. And it's safe to say that the Packers, with a solid running game and stout defense, will be battling it out for the division. So once both teams are in the playoffs, you never know. Just look at what's happened the last several years.

So getting back to my point... would there ever have been a Super Bowl more annoyingly hyped than a Packers-Jets matchup? Favre's old team against his new team. All the arguments about whether the Packers were right to trade Favre would be analyzed (read: over-analyzed) for two weeks. And you thought you heard too much Favre-talk this off-season... I don't know if I'd be able to handle it, although the networks would be falling all over themselves with stories. And worst of all... one of those teams would have to actually win the game. Okay, let's not think about that for now.

On to the picks...

Kansas City (-3) vs Oakland - The Raiders are even worse off than I thought. They made the Broncos have confidence in themselves to have a good season... now that's pretty bad. The Chiefs may not be good, but they do get to play this one at home, which should be enough to handle Oakland. Is there really anything else that needs to be said about this gem of a game?

Tennessee (+1) at Cincinnati - Vince Young... where to begin. Depending on who you believe, Young either spent the last week contemplating whether he should even be here on Earth, or it was all just a Three's Company-esque misunderstanding. Either way, I don't see the Bengals being able to stop the Titans' running game (that's faster than Joe Flacco, by the way...), and Carson Palmer looked absolutely dreadful last week. I can't believe I'm picking Kerry Collins on the road, but I told you it's a crazy season...

Minnesota (+2) vs Indianapolis - So my AFC final four of Indy, New England, San Diego, and Jacksonville isn't looking too good all of a sudden. If the Colts drop to 0-2, I think everybody within the Pittsburgh area will begin their search for hotel rooms in January. And the way the Colts looked on Sunday night, I think they will fall again. They looked disjointed, which can happen when the focal point of the team missing so much time in the off-season. Minnesota has a better defense than the Bears and a better running game, plus they're at home. Sounds like a winning setup to me.

New Orleans (pk) at Washington - Having Colston out hurts both the Saints and my fantasy team, as Brees will need to find his yards and touchdowns elsewhere for a while. I don't think he'll have any trouble finding them against Washington, however, as they looked rather scattered against the Giants on opening night. Granted, they've had over a week to prepare, but Jason Campbell has had over several years to prepare and that hasn't really seemed to help him too much at this point either...

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit - So... the team that handled a popular preseason pick on Monday night against a team that got blown out by a team starting a rookie quarterback and a running back carrying the load for the first time... Yeah, I wonder how this one is going to turn out. The Packers looked as good as I expected, while the Lions looked even worse (somehow). This one shouldn't even be close. Ryan Grant, my fantasy team thanks you ahead of time...

Carolina (-3) vs Chicago - I have no reason to go against the Bears this week other than I'm not letting myself buy into the hype until we're well into the season. So the Bears are on a high after beating a premier AFC team on the road? Um, Chicago? I'd like to introduce you to Carolina. Yeah, they did the same thing last week...

New York Giants (-8) at St. Louis - Well, so much for my "the Rams are dangerous when healthy" theory. That's pretty much shot. I still don't trust Eli, but the Giants defense will run over the Rams offensive line and Plaxico and the 14 running backs on New York will all get their numbers in this one.

Jacksonville (-5.5) vs Buffalo - Welcome back to the AFC, Buffalo. This is no longer the NFC West, and I think the Bills will find that out this week. I'm hoping the Jaguars' failure in Week 1 was more the product of never playing the Titans well. Although if I'm wrong (and there's a high probability of that), then my AFC finalist list is going to need a much-needed updating.

Atlanta (+7.5) at Tampa Bay - Brian Griese is back! I'm so excited... It can't be a good thing when I trust a quarterback with 60 minutes of experience under his belt more so than a veteran with 60 years. What's that? Brian Griese is only 33? I don't believe you... Well, whether he's 33 or 83, I still wouldn't want him under center for my team, especially after losing to one divisional opponent already and desperately needing a win to avoid an 0-2 start. So much for the Bucs' quarterback depth, huh?

San Francisco (+7) at Seattle - No team from the NFC West should ever, ever be giving 7 points. Ever. This game may turn out to be a blowout, but you tell me who's going to blow out whom. A couple turnovers either way and one of these teams could be coasting to easy victory. But couldn't you see either of these teams racking up the giveaways on any given day? Yeah, me too.

Miami (+6.5) at Arizona - So 6 1/2 isn't 7, but it's close enough for me to apply the rule from above here. Did Miami look bad last week? Yes. Is Chad Pennington still Chad Pennington? Unfortunately for him, yes. But is Arizona still Arizona? I'm sticking with yes again. I think Arizona will most likely win, but the Dolphins kept it close against the Jets last week, and I would pick the Jets over the Cardinals in a heartbeat. Screwed up logic? Once again, yes.

New York Jets (-2) vs New England - Okay, I've been sitting here for several minutes trying to talk myself into one side or another here. On the Patriots side, they have a better team up and down the roster, except for the fact that Tom Brady is injured. On the Jets side, Tom Brady is injured. Aren't you glad you come here for this thorough analysis? Making his home debut against a team that will need some time to find its new identity, I'm going with Favre and the Jets in this one.

San Diego (-1) at Denver - The Broncos are coming off a short week after a road game. That usually doesn't bode well the following week. Plus, they're playing the Chargers, who have got to be furious about the outcome of their game last week. And I'm sure they'll want to prove that they're more than just Shawne Merriman and company on defense. (Why this theory doesn't apply to the Pats above: You can replace some of the production of a Pro-bowler on the defensive line with depth at the position, but you can't replace the production of the reigning MVP at the most important position on the field.)

Pittsburgh (-6) vs Cleveland - Last season, I had a thing where I would never pick the favorites on intra-divisional games when giving 6 or more points. I'm dropping that this season because, well, I don't know how well that worked out, and the Browns have given me another rule for picking games this year: Don't pick the Browns. That one's easier to follow...

Dallas (-7) vs Philadelphia - Donovan McNabb looked great against a bad defense last week. That sounds about right. I don't think he'll do as well against a solid defense this week. That also sounds about right... The Cowboys, from top to bottom, are still a better team than the Eagles and playing at home against their rivals, I don't think they'll take their foot off the gas at all this game. With their offense, that could get interesting quickly.

Houston (-4) vs Baltimore - I don't think the Ravens are as good as they showed last week. I think that had more to do with an awful, awful Bengals team. And I don't think the Texans are as bad as they showed. The Steelers just appear to be the class of the conference in the early season. I realize that the people in Houston have more pressing issues on their mind right now than this game, but when all is said and done, I think the Texans will give their fans at least something to cheer about.

Last Week: 10-6
Overall: 10-6

September 03, 2008

NFL Scorecard - Week 1 Predictions

Year 1 of the great predicting experiment yielded mixed results for me. What started out as a strong display of intelligence quickly devolved into a pathetic few weeks of a complete lack of football aptitude. In the end, the regular season turned out how you would expect, with a regular season record just under .500. The playoffs saved me somewhat, resulting in a final showing of 128-125-14 (.506).

When I started this last season, I wrote "[s]tastically speaking, I should bat around .500, as that's essentially the purpose of the point spread." And while that is true, it was somewhat disheartening to do so well for nearly the entire season, only to collapse in the 4th quarter of the season. I would compare myself to the Detroit Lions at this point, but at least I made it to Week 15 before starting my demise...

Despite no additional reason for optimism beyond simply the start of the season, I find myself stepping back onto the field of play to try to improve upon last year's results. I have not improved in any way and will most likely use the same techniques I utilized before and somehow hope for better results. I guess in that respect, I'm more like the Chicago Bears than I would have hoped...

As always, spreads can be found here.

New York Giants (-4) vs Washington - The defending Super Bowl champions kick off the new season on Thursday, which really messes up my schedule on writing this post. Nevertheless, the NFL has decided to move forward in spite of me, and I feel the Giants will do the same in spite of the Redskins. New York is missing some key guys on its defensive line, but their depth, and a completely raucous crowd, should easily handle a Washington team that's shown nothing in the preseason thus far.

Cincinnati (-1) at Baltimore - If Joe Flacco is going to start his career against somebody, the Bengals defense is probably a good place to start. Of course, that doesn't change the fact that he's still a rookie that's making the jump from Delaware to the NFL. That takes some getting used to, and even though Cincinnati may not be championship material, they do still have enough weapons to start the season off right.

New York Jets (-3) at Miami - Brett Favre Bowl I kicks off on Sunday, with the second quickly following on Monday Night Football. It's hard to believe that Favre has really adapted to the Jets, or that they've adapted to him, but a motivated Favre and a rebuilding Dolphins team can pretty much turn out one way here. Thomas Jones should get on track against a defense missing Jason Taylor and Zach Thomas, which will ease the load on the aging quarterback as well.

New England (-16.5) vs Kansas City - I'm torn on this game. After last season, you would think that the Patriots would want to come out and tear apart a lessor opponent in the Chiefs. However, the run-it-up Pats didn't exactly turn out so well. And they didn't exactly come together in the preseason. And Tom Brady isn't exactly healthy. Last season, I would have bet New England and given 30 points. This year, I think a more conservative and balanced team will still flex their muscles enough to dominate the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh (-7) vs Houston - I admit, I haven't followed the preseason enough to know how the Willie Parker/Rashard Mendenhall situation is going to play out, but with three solid receivers, two game-breaking running backs, and a Super Bowl quarterback, I think it's safe to say that the Steelers are pretty much set on offense. That's more than can be said for Houston, which has pieces but has yet to put them together. Ahman Green is somehow still the starting running back, which is not a positive. If Andre Johnson can stay healthy for the entire game, they may keep it close... but not close enough.

Tennessee (+3) vs Jacksonville - I like the Jaguars this season, I really do. But for some reason, I just feel like an early-season, divisional road game will be a tough play, especially with everything going on around the Jaguars in the last week or so. I could see them winning this one, but I think the Titans keep it close, if not win it outright. (Side note: I feel like I'm going to be regretting this pick in about 96 hours...)

Detroit (-3) at Atlanta - Oh, a hotbed for football fans! The Falcons! The Lions! Could it get any better?! Well, the Lions just signed a washed up Rudi Johnson, so they got that going for them. The Falcons counter with Matt Ryan's first NFL game and Michael Turner's first start as "the Man". Kitna and Co. may not be glamorous, but they've been together for a while and will be able to run around the Falcons for the win.

Buffalo (pk) vs Seattle - I really don't like the Seahawks this year. I don't know why, but I have no faith at all in them. Luckily, I have (apparently) negative faith in the rest of their teams in the division since I still have them winning it, but in this matchup, against a Bills team at home, I'll go with the team without two of its top receivers injured.

New Orleans (-3) vs Tampa Bay - It's the season for redemption for the Saints, as many thought they were about to turn the corner last season, only to fall flat. They have plenty of offensive pieces, especially after adding Jeremy Shockey in the offseason. It's only a matter the defense that worries me about this team. The Bucs could exploit this, but in the emotional Superdome, I think the Saints give New Orleans something to cheer about.

St Louis (+7) at Philadelphia - Yes, Brian Westbrook will probably have a huge game. But who is Donovan McNabb going to throw the ball to? And right now, the Rams are all healthy, which makes them more dangerous than they'll probably be in a few weeks. By the end of the season, the Eagles will definitely be better off the the Rams, but Week 1... Going with the Rams for the upset.

Dallas (-5) at Cleveland - The top team in the NFC takes on the surprise team of the AFC last year, but the Browns won't be sneaking up on people this year, while the Cowboys have no problem in making themselves known as well. Both teams have plenty of offensive firepower (even though I still don't trust Derek Anderson), but when it comes to defense, Dallas has the obvious edge. The Cowboys are looking for a Super Bowl title this season. They won't get tripped up this early.

San Diego (-9.5) vs Carolina - The Panthers without Steve Smith is not exactly the type of team that can travel into San Diego and take on a popular Super Bowl pick. Shawne Merriman's injury may be the story of the day, but Carolina won't have the weapons to do anything about it. On the other side of the ball, well, there's Tomlinson... Not sure what more you need to say about that.

Arizona (-2.5) at San Francisco - Another thrilling matchup on the same level as the Lions-Falcons tilt mentioned above. I really don't have anything to say about either of these teams that's worth mentioning, but I'm rooting for Anquan Boldin for fantasy purposes, and the Cardinals have a quarterback who's done something, so let's go with them this time around.

Indianapolis (-9.5) vs Chicago - Peyton Manning vs Kyle Orton. Let that sink in for a second... Okay. Do I need to mention anything else? How about the fact the Colts want to erase the abrupt end to their season last winter and what better way to do that than destroying a bad team that can't tackle in prime time? Okay, let's just move on before I get sick...

Green Bay (-3) vs Minnesota - It's Brett Favre Bowl II. I have the Vikings winning the division, but right off the bat, I think the Packers, at home, take care of business against Minnesota. No matter what you think of Tarvaris Jackson, when your starting quarterback is taking the field at less than 100% against a good defense, that's not a good thing. Adrian Peterson will get his yards, although he'll have to earn them, while Aaron Rodgers will (he hopes) get on Green Bay fans' good side.

Denver (-3) at Oakland - It concerns me that I've taken almost all favorites in what always turns out to be one of the most unpredictable weeks of the season. But I don't know which game I would switch in this list. I was tempted to pick Oakland here at home, but with young players at several key positions, it might be too early to have come together enough to knock off the Broncos. Add in how much Mike Shanahan loves beating the Raiders, especially on Monday Night Football, and you've got yourself a Broncos victory.

Last Season: 128-125-14

August 30, 2008

2008 NFL Predictions

It's amazing how having nothing to do really reduces your desire and capacity to do anything at all. I had assumed that my summer with no responsibilities would result in an abundance of new material on this website but as you can deduce by the date of the last post, that hasn't been the case. The Cubs and White Sox have both been riding their 1st place waves, the Bears have scuffled through the least inspiring quarterback competition I have ever witnessed, and the Bulls lucked into the #1 overall pick and drafted who I sincerely hope is the point guard in the Deron Williams/Chris Paul talent range like the experts all claim. And through every critical moment in the paths of my favorite teams, there I have sat, thinking "I should really write something about that... eh, I'll do it later."

Having no structure in my life is apparently not a good thing. Other than a move to Los Angeles, I can't really say I've accomplished much this summer. However, there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and with the light only a few days ahead, it's become too blinding to ignore. That's right, football season is here. The epitome of structure in the world of sports, the NFL season is about to begin and will hopefully kick me back into some sort of productive writing routine.

So with that, let us begin with what else... NFL predictions for the upcoming season. Now as I mentioned, no routine has severely reduced my productivity, which includes keeping up with what's been going on through training camps and preseason games. But I'm sure that you, my reader(s), will understand...

AFC East
1. New England Patriots (12-4) - So... how do you follow up the most memorable one-loss season in the history of the NFL? Well, playing in the AFC East will help cure a lot of their ills. They're a little older, and teams are a little wiser playing them, but the Patriots are still the class of the division and should coast to another division title and first-round bye. Tom Brady could dominate this division with one leg, which coincidentally, he might have to do...
2. Buffalo Bills (8-8) - Dick Jauron still only has one winning season in his entire coaching tenure. Until proven otherwise, I can't possibly go above .500 with this team. I do like the talent they have, but their quarterback is still developing and who is going to line up opposite Lee Evans? If the pattern holds, the Bills will start slowly, then come on strong at the end of the season to save Jauron's job yet again.
3. New York Jets (8-8) - Yes, yes, Brett Favre is the quarterback. I get it. Where was he during the OTAs though? And through training camp? And in the first preseason game? Oh yeah, that's right, he just got there. I don't care who you are, it takes some time to adjust to a new system, and Favre isn't exactly getting younger. Was he taking care of himself this offseason? Is he in shape? Is he going to wear down? Too many questions to rank this team any higher than this.
4. Miami Dolphins (5-11) - Whoever invented the term "rebuilding" is a genius because it allows teams that you know are going to stink a free pass on the season. Low expectations are always welcomed by new coaching staffs. Chad Pennington, when not injured, should be serviceable, and I'm hoping (for fantasy purposes) that Ricky Williams stays on the right side of crazy, but there are plenty of holes on this team that will take some time to fill in. They won't be filled in this season...

AFC North
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) - I actually feel like the Steelers will be better than this record, but when I went through the season schedule, somehow this is what I came up with. But the potential is there, with plenty of offensive weapons at Big Ben's disposal. In a division with plenty of question marks, the Steelers look like the most solid of the bunch.
2. Cleveland Browns (8-8) - When weighing my quarterback options for my fantasy draft, I saw Derek Anderson sitting there among the top-ranked at his position. His ceiling is quite high, with an assortment of receivers all capable of breaking games wide open. But this is still Derek Anderson we're talking about. He couldn't beat out Charlie Frye to start last season, faded terribly at the end of the year, and still has Brady Quinn looking over his shoulder. Add in a defense that still hasn't stopped anybody... yeah, .500 seems about right.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (7-9) - Where to begin with this team... Well, they brought Chris Henry back, so there's that. Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco is still insane. The defense is still questionable. I feel Carson Palmer took a step backwards last season. I can't possibly trust this team to put forth any sort of consistent play this season. Sure, they'll have some nice wins, but I see some bad losses with this team.
4. Baltimore Ravens (6-10) - Kyle Boller, Troy Smith, and Joe Flacco? And I thought the Bears' quarterback competition was depressing. Add in Willis McGahee already being nicked up, Todd Heap being a complete disaster last year, and Ray Lewis and Co. all being a year older and this team looks like it has a long season ahead...

AFC South
1. Indianapolis Colts (11-5) - Anybody who thinks Peyton Manning would miss any regular season time obviously doesn't follow Peyton Manning. Even after his Super Bowl MVP performance, questions about his "clutchness" continue to persist, especially after losing to the woefully undermanned Chargers in the playoffs and watching erratic younger brother, Eli, duplicate his MVP performance. Peyton wants to establish his greatness by breaking every record he can, including consecutive games played. He won't sit out a game unless the coaching staff literally straps his down during warmups.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-5) - At some point, the Jaguars are going to knock off the Colts to claim the division, right? I mean, we've been talking about this for years now, but every year the Colts hang on for the title. David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew form an impressive offensive combination to go along with a defense that just drafted even more linemen. I still don't know who's going to catch the ball, but they'll have enough firepower to claim the top wild card spot.
3. Tennessee Titans (9-7) - For the second year in a row, I have the Titans at 9-7 and I'm not entirely sure why. At the same time, Jeff Fisher has this team playing solid football every year and I'm not entirely sure how. Of course the season, as the last couple, will depend on how far Vince Young has come. Now in his third season, it's time to show what he's made of.
4. Houston Texans (6-10) - "Everybody believes the Texans are building a team the right way, but they're not there yet." I wrote that in last season's prediction post. I see no reason to change that this time around...

AFC West
1. San Diego Chargers (12-4) - Behind Norv Turner, this team made great strides towards the championship... wait, let me read that again... I'll tell you, I never expected to type those words in my life, but there they are. This team scraped its way to the AFC Championship game, getting by the Colts and playing the Patriots tight. Now everybody is back healthy and has had a taste of what to expect. They're a trendy pick to represent the conference in the Super Bowl, and it's tough to argue, although the Merriman injury does raise some concern.
2. Denver Broncos (9-7) - Can we officially scratch off the "Genius" label from Mike Shanahan's business cards? Other than frustrating fantasy owners, Shanahan hasn't done much with the talent he's accumulated these last few years. Jay Cutler may be ready to take the leap, but this team is a far cry from the dominating team of several years ago. So why do I have them making the playoffs? Well, it's tradition to see the Colts destroy this team in the first round, and I don't like to mess with tradition...

3. Oakland Raiders (6-10) - JaMarcus Russell and Darren McFadden. It sounds like a great combination... in a year or two. The duo will go through some growing pains their first season together, but it's an interesting story to follow. If they both live up to the hype, the Raiders may be a force in the not-so-distant future. Of course, they'll have to upgrade from the Ronald Curry and the player formerly known as Javon Walker at WR.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11) - I thought the Chiefs were going to be one of the worst teams in the league... and then they manhandled the Bears first unit in the first preseason game. That did not give me confidence in my own team, but it did remind me that the Chiefs at least one offensive weapon in Larry Johnson. If he's healthy, he should carry the team behind a questionable offensive line. But one player won't carry a team beyond a handful of wins.

NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys (12-4) - If the Cowboys don't easily control the division (and conference) this season, somebody is going to get fired, and it's not going to be Jerry Jones. The Cowboys have weapons at every position and a defense that can play with any team. I think their only weakness may be Jessica Simpson.
2. New York Giants (9-7) - Now the hard part begins... The team went 10-6 last year on their path to the Super Bowl but now as the crowned champs, opponents will be gunning for the Giants every game. Has Eli really shaken off all the inconsistency issues, or was the title run just a lucky consistency peak in his ever-fluctuating football career? I'm leaning towards the latter...
3. Philadelphia Eagles (8-8) - It's a shame that this division is so stacked because the Eagles would most likely win either the NFC North or West. However, being stuck in the East, the Eagles have a tough hill to climb. If Donovan McNabb can stay healthy, they can beat any team in their division, but he'll need his receivers to stay healthy as well, which hasn't been the case so far.
4. Washington Redskins (7-9) - They say not to make too much of the preseason, and that's good advice for Redskins fans, as Washington has been trounced in their last two games. Washington is looking for big things from Jason Campbell, but much like the Eagles, it will be difficult to accomplish much when even a decent team is still the fourth best in this division.

NFC North
1. Minnesota Vikings (10-6) - Adrian Peterson and the defense alone will win the division for the Vikings. Anything Tarvaris Jackson gives them will be a bonus. Bernard Berrian on turf will help, although don't expect to include him on the run blocking... They didn't get Brett Favre, but as long as that wasn't a huge distraction, the Vikings should claim the division title.
2. Green Bay Packers (9-7) - So... what's new? In what might be the most closely examined Packers season in a long time, Aaron Rodgers takes the helm as somebody other than #4 takes the snaps for the first time in what's seemed like the last 74 years. Somehow, even as a backup, Rodgers has had two season-ending injuries in the last three years, which is something that probably makes Packers fans nervous. But they do have surprise star Ryan Grant in the backfield and a solid defense, in addition to 4 games against the Lions and the Bears... I think the Packers will be just fine...
3. Detroit Lions (7-9) - Mike Martz is gone... so now who do they blame when things don't go well? Jon Kitna is suddenly the senior quarterback in the division, but that doesn't necessarily inspire confidence in duplicating his numbers from the last few seasons. He's a nice quarterback, but when Tatum Bell is atop your depth chart (even though Kevin Smith should get most the carries), it's not a good thing.
4. Chicago Bears (5-11) - You would think it pains me to list the Bears this low, but I'm hoping that low expectations softens the trauma that I'm most likely about to feel this season. Kyle Orton at quarterback. Rookie Matt Forte at running back. Five #4 receivers running routes down the field. A defense that can no longer tackle. Fantastic... The only exciting part of this team is Devin Hester, and they're reducing his returns this year to keep him fresh as a receiver. How much energy does it take to watch punts sail out of bounds?

NFC South
1. New Orleans Saints (11-5) - Is Reggie Bush an elite running back? That's the question of the season for the Saints, and at the moment, the answer is "no". However, they do have a plethora of receiving options, including Jeremy Shockey. This makes me, the owner of Drew Brees, very happy. However, there were holes on both sides of the ball for this team last year, and I'm not sure how well the defense has been fixed. But the offensive firepower alone should be able to control the division.
2. Carolina Panthers (10-6) - With a healthy Jake Delhomme, a healthy Jonathan Stewart, and an unsuspended Steve Smith, this team will have plenty of talent on the offensive side of the ball. Reports have Julius Peppers back to his old ways, which will be a welcomed sight to Panthers fans. However, I feel that there are still more questions (see: injuries, suspensions) for Carolina than New Orleans, which is why I'm putting them here, claiming the top wild card spot.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7) - Yet another team linked to the Favre drama this offseason. Like the Vikings, the Buccaneers failed to acquire the veteran quarterback. However, unlike the Vikings, there is no Adrian Peterson in the backfield to pick up the slack. They do have Jeff Garcia, who just continues to plug along and prove his doubters wrong. While it may not be exciting, it has been efficient. But I just don't see this team climbing over the two above it.
4. Atlanta Falcons (3-13) - This team was awful last season and is now throwing in a rookie quarterback from Day 1 to lead the team from the abyss that Michael Vick left them in. Yeah, good luck with that. Falcon fans are hoping that the "throw him into the fire" approach will have Matt Ryan follow the path that Peyton Manning took, but even Manning struggled the first season. Michael Turner will help, but it'll be time for great patience in Atlanta.

NFC West
1. Seattle Seahawks (8-8) - I've obviously saved the best division for last here... It's a shame that any of these teams have to make the playoffs, but that's the situation we're in, so I'm going with the team with the most experienced head coach and quarterback. Seems logical enough. Seattle will probably end up with a better record simply because of the teams in their division, but there's always one awful division that gets people worked up about the playoff structure, and I'm going with this one.
2. Arizona Cardinals (5-11) - Anquan Boldin is upset. Edgerrin James is older. Matt Leinart can't find the field. Sounds like a great recipe to the season. How much of a leash is Kurt Warner going to have? Will Boldin become a distraction? Will the Arizona Cardinals ever stop being the Arizona Cardinals? By this prediction, I'm apparently saying "not this year".
3. St. Louis Rams (5-11) - Well, Steven Jackson made it to camp, so that's a plus. But this team completely fell apart last season, with or without Jackson, and I don't know if they've really improved themselves that much. Marc Bulger is still accurate when healthy, but how long will he hold out? Torry Holt is older and the other side of the field needs to find a replacement for Isaac Bruce not named Drew Bennett... They did add Chris Long to the defense, but the left side of the defensive line has a lot of miles on their collective tires.
4. San Francisco 49ers (5-11) - Remember when everybody was on the Frank Gore bandwagon as a top fantasy football pick? Yeah, funny how things change. Of course, Gore is the least of the 49ers problems this season, as here we find yet another inspiring quarterback competition between J.T. O'Sullivan, Shaun Hill, and the immortal Alex Smith. Really, do I need to say anything else to explain why I have this team with only 5 wins? Okay then...

AFC Wild Card Round
Indianapolis over Denver - Just because it's what's meant to be...
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh - The Jaguars have the defensive players to contain the Steelers offense and their offense will find just enough points to get out of Pittsburgh with a win.
NFC Wild Card Round
Minnesota over New York Giants - With a stud defense and home field advantage, the Vikings dethrone the Giants and the questions about Eli start up once again.
Carolina over Seattle - Somehow, the wild card Panthers gets a better draw than the division winner Vikings. Carolina cruises to an easy victory.

AFC Divisional Round
San Diego over Jacksonville - The Chargers return to the AFC Championship game with an instant classic over the Jaguars.
New England over Indianapolis - Wow, the AFC matchups are just so much more intriguing than the NFC. The Patriots squeak by the Colts, closing out Tony Dungy's career.
NFC Divisional Round
Dallas over Carolina - The Cowboy defense smothers Steve Smith and pressures Jake Delhomme into key mistakes. The offense finishes the job.
Minnesota over New Orleans - They say a good defense always beats a good offense. That, for no other reason, has me going with the Vikings.

AFC Championship
San Diego over New England - On one hand, we have the questions surrounding the Patriots' aura of invincibility being irreparably damaged. On the other hand, we have questions about an injury to Shawne Merriman. I'll go with concern about one player over concern for the entire team.
Dallas over Minnesota - Yes, the Vikings' defense is good, but so is the Cowboys' and the Vikings are still being run by Tarvaris Jackson. Dallas will do just enough to contain Adrian Peterson and ride back into the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl XLIII
Dallas over San Diego - As I went through the entire season schedule, team by team, game by game, I could not find any obvious weakness or flaw in the Cowboys makeup. They have the offense, they have the defense, they have the special teams, they have the playmakers. They are a complete team that should easily handle the NFC and then cause Norv Turner to revert back into Norv Turner while facing his old team. The Chargers make it one step closer than last season, but have to settle for runner-up. Of course, this all looks silly if Merriman is hurt more than he's letting on. They'll still claim their division, but they won't be able to run through the AFC playoffs, much less the Super Bowl, without his talent lining up on every down.

So with that being said, feel free to go bet on anybody other than Dallas and San Diego with complete confidence...